According to a seminal study of voting behavior called The American Voter, authored by colleagues Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes the power and influence of independent voters in the U.S. has been growing since the 1960's. One problem though, is that the University of Michigan study says that it can be awfully difficult to say exactly what an independent voter is. The earliest concepts have the independent voter as one whose political choices were made based on issues and candidates (since the voter did not have a party affiliation). But early studies of voting behavior conclusively demonstrated that self-identified independent voters were less specific in elections than partisan voters. Poorly informed about issues and candidates, and less politically active, a contrary view started to emerge: The independent voter as a person who made political decisions based on deeply held personal beliefs, attitudes, loyalties, and as a strongly partisan voter, perhaps much more than any other.
Today's Independent Voter is Recognized for their Ability to Sway a U.S.Election
In a more recent study of voting behavior that included one of the original researchers from 1960's, Warren Miller and Merrill Shanks of the University of California, Berkeley revisited many of the questions raised in The American Voter text in a new work entitled, The New American Voter, which essentially argues that nonalignment to any party or candidate is the key hallmark of today's independent voter. Currently there are no Independents in the U.S. House and two (Bernie Sanders I-Vermont and Joseph Lieberman I-Connecticut) Independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats. According to estimates as much as 30% of the American electorate is self-identified as Independent and a large portion of the people who actually turn out to vote.] But whether in the U.S. Senate in relation to close votes or during the Mid-term (2-year) and regular (4-year) general populous elections for Representatives, Senators, and U.S. Vice President and President, the power of the independent voter can be felt and has often been the deciding factor in numerous elections since the 1960's.
Embracing Independents is Perhaps Key to Both U.S. Liberal and Conservative Movements
In the U.S. Culture War wedge issues like abortion, gay marriage, medical marijuana and the so-called redistribution of wealth that would apparently take place if everyone in America was given health care coverage, are in fact some of the key issues that independent voters will help to decide in the near term. In California the issue of gay marriage is before the Federal Courts after having been defeated handily by a conservative and independent voter driven change to the state's constitution. In addition, as the issue of legalizing medical marijuana makes the rounds from state legislature to state legislature, a coalition of liberal and independent voters may eventually hold the key to Congressional legislation that would eventually lead to a national legalization. And not just of medical marijuana, but, of marijuana for anyone 21 years and older.
And with the unusual and somewhat unexpected U.S. Senate election of Scott P. Brown (R-Mass), to "the people's seat," in a normally liberal leaning and heavily democratic Massachusetts. Where a conservative and independent voting block was able to form a coalition which successfully turned the tables on liberals there and handily defeating them. But national republican figures like U.S. Senator John S. McCain (R-Arizona), and even democratic U.S. President Obama himself showed up to campaign in Massachusetts, realizing that this might end up being a referendum on his term thus far.
Whomever can Build the Proper Coalition may Win the Spoils
As was the case in Massachusetts, the party that is able to build the right coalition with independent voters may well end up winning all the marbles in the game of who gets the political spoils. With controversial legislation pending, and mid-term elections coming up, the American electorate may very well be ready to throw the proverbial bums out. But which politicians stay and which ones go, as well as, which legislation is successful and that which is not, may well depend on who is ready to work with U.S. independent voters.
References:
1. Campbell, Angus Converse, Philip Miller Warren, and Stokes, Douglas The American Voter, The University of Chicago Press, C:1960 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1960.
2. Miller, Warren E., and Shanks J. Merrill The New American Voter, The Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England 1996.
3. U.S. Senate Debate between State Senator Scott P. Brown and Attorney General Martha Coakley, during special election to the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, January 11th, 2010.
Paul Hamilton - My name is Paul Edward Hamilton, I am a current contributing writer for Suite 101 and Examiner.com and post things that I write on ...
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